The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday that job openings in October rose to 7.74 million, up from a revised 7.37 million in September, which was the lowest level since January 2021. Economists had forecast 7.51 million openings, according to Bloomberg.
This increase in job openings comes as investors evaluate the labor market’s pace of adjustment and the implications for Federal Reserve policy on interest rates in 2024.
Raymond James chief economist Eugenio Aleman remarked, “Today’s report is yet another indication that labor demand is softening but not collapsing.”
Key JOLTS Report Highlights
- Hires: The number of hires fell to 5.31 million in October, down from 5.58 million in September, with the hiring rate declining to 3.3% from 3.5%.
- Quits: The quits rate rose to 2.1% in October, reversing a recent downtrend, with total quits increasing to 3.3 million, the highest level since May.
Labor Market Confidence Grows
The increase in quits aligns with a more optimistic labor market outlook among consumers. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence survey showed its labor market differential—those seeing jobs as “plentiful” minus those viewing jobs as “hard to get”—rose to 18.2% in November, up from a cycle low of 12.7% in September.
Oxford Economics senior economist Matthew Martin noted, “The quits rate rose for the first time since May 2023, signaling a greater willingness for workers to leave their positions and matching the more upbeat outlook for current and future labor conditions by consumers.”
Anticipation Builds for November Jobs Report
The JOLTS data sets the stage for the November jobs report, due Friday morning. Economists expect a recovery from October’s weak employment numbers, which were impacted by hurricanes and worker strikes.
- Jobs Added: November is projected to show 220,000 job additions, a sharp increase from October’s 12,000.
- Unemployment Rate: Expected to hold steady at 4.1%.
Federal Reserve Rate Cuts in Focus
The labor market data comes amid market speculation about Federal Reserve actions. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a nearly 75% probability of a quarter-percentage-point rate cut at the Fed’s final meeting of the year on Dec. 18.
As labor market dynamics continue to evolve, the Fed’s policy adjustments will play a crucial role in balancing economic growth and inflation control.
