As Europe grapples with near-zero growth and stagnating living standards, a wave of right-wing nationalism is sweeping across the continent, threatening to exacerbate the economic crisis. Populist demagogues, leading polls in Italy, the Netherlands, France, Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia, are pushing traditional center-right parties toward more extreme positions.
By the upcoming European Parliament elections in June, this rightward drift is expected to intensify, with ultra-nationalist and populist-nationalist parties likely to secure as much as 25% of the vote. This shift mirrors a broader trend in the West, where protectionist and nationalist agendas, epitomized by “Trump 2.0,” are gaining traction.
Unlike the US, where the economy is roaring forward, Europe, particularly Germany, is mired in near-stagnation. A decade of low growth has divided the continent between a dwindling optimistic minority and a growing pessimistic majority. Many Europeans now view life as a zero-sum game, believing that they can only succeed if others fail.
This zero-sum mentality is reflected in widespread pessimism about the future. In major European countries, including France and Italy, a minority believes they will do better than their parents. A poll by Focaldata revealed that in the Netherlands and Germany, as many people are pessimistic as optimistic about their prospects.
The rise of nationalist sentiments is fueled by a blame culture, where people attribute their economic woes to immigrants, foreigners, and minorities. Europe’s fiscal policies, such as the Growth and Stability Pact, which restrict member states’ ability to invest in long-term growth, reinforce this trend.
Germany’s strict debt brake, limiting the government’s structural deficit to 0.35% of GDP, casts a shadow over Europe’s prospects for recovery. While China and the US are able to stimulate their economies through subsidies and deficits, Europe remains constrained by fiscal retrenchment.
The European Recovery and Resilience Facility, set to end in 2026 with no replacement, further hampers Europe’s ability to invest in crucial sectors like technology and clean energy. This lack of investment, coupled with a resurgence of protectionism and anti-environmentalist sentiments, threatens to keep Europe mired in a low-growth rut.
To counter this nationalist tide, progressives are advocating for a plan focused on economic and environmental transformation. Cooperation and solidarity, rather than protectionism and xenophobia, are seen as the keys to a brighter future for Europe.
As the clock ticks down to the European Parliament elections, the continent stands at a crossroads. The choices made in the coming months will not only shape Europe’s economic future but also determine the strength of its commitment to democracy, cooperation, and inclusivity.
