Author: Jamie Carpenter

4.2% Monthly Increase Defies Forecasts of a Decline Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. rose by 4.2% in February compared to January, reaching an annualized pace of 4.26 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This surprising gain defied analysts’ expectations of a 3% decline. Despite the monthly jump, home sales were still 1.2% lower compared to February 2024. Mortgage Rates and Housing Demand The data reflects closings from contracts signed in December and January, when mortgage rates hovered in the 7% range for a 30-year fixed loan. As of today, rates have eased slightly…

BOJ Maintains Caution as Global Risks Mount The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, citing growing global economic uncertainty fueled by U.S. tariff policies. Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted that while rising food costs and strong wage growth could push domestic inflation higher, external risks from U.S. trade actions make future rate hike decisions uncertain. Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Japan’s Economy Ueda acknowledged the potential fallout from U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent tariff increases, stating that the BOJ would reassess its economic forecasts in early April. “Japan’s wage and price conditions are on track, possibly stronger…

Business inventories in the U.S. rose in January, reversing a decline in the previous month as slowing sales boosted stockpiles at wholesalers. This increase could contribute to economic growth in the first quarter of 2025. Inventories Rise After December Decline According to the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau, business inventories increased 0.3% in January, following a 0.2% decline in December. The rise was in line with economists’ expectations. Impact on Economic Growth In the fourth quarter of 2024, private inventories were nearly depleted due to strong consumer spending, some of which was driven by pre-emptive buying ahead of new tariffs. This…

China’s retail sales growth accelerated in January-February, offering a boost to policymakers aiming to bolster domestic consumption. However, rising unemployment and easing factory output highlight ongoing economic challenges, particularly as new US trade tariffs add further pressure. Policymakers have prioritized expanding domestic demand to counteract the impact of President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies targeting China’s exports. Yet, analysts warn that Beijing’s goal of achieving “around 5%” GDP growth in 2025 may be difficult given weak household demand and the nation’s prolonged property crisis. Retail Sales Beat Expectations Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released Monday showed that…

China has strongly criticized a proposal to sell ports in the Panama Canal to BlackRock, calling it a “betrayal” and “spineless groveling.” A state-backed commentary in Ta Kung Pao, later republished by China’s Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office, triggered a sharp 6% drop in shares of CK Hutchison (CKH), the Hong Kong-based owner of the ports, on Friday. Investor Concerns Over Beijing’s Reaction Analysts say the market reaction signals fears that Beijing may block the deal. “There is some chance that other influences may be brought to bear on the company that might put the deal at risk,” said…

U.S. producer prices remained unchanged in February for the first time in seven months, while initial jobless claims declined slightly, signaling a stable economy. However, deep government spending cuts and escalating tariffs are raising recession fears. Inflation Risks Amid Trade War The Labor Department reported Thursday that the Producer Price Index (PPI) was flat last month following a 0.6% rise in January. Economists had forecast a 0.3% increase. Year-over-year, the PPI rose 3.2%, down from 3.7% in January. Despite the cooling headline number, underlying inflation pressures remain. Goods prices rose 0.3%, largely due to a 53.6% surge in wholesale egg…

President Donald Trump announced a sweeping 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum on Wednesday, escalating global trade tensions and prompting immediate retaliatory measures from the European Union and Canada. Global Trade War Escalates The tariffs, aimed at bolstering U.S. manufacturing, have sparked fears of a global trade war. The European Union swiftly retaliated with countermeasures on up to $28 billion worth of American goods, while Canada imposed over $20 billion in retaliatory tariffs. Trump signaled that further U.S. trade actions could follow. Economic Concerns and Industry Impact While the tariffs are designed to protect domestic steel and aluminum…

Goldman Sachs has slashed its US economic growth forecast for 2025 to 1.7%, down from an earlier estimate of 2.4%, as concerns mount over the impact of President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war. The revision comes amid increasing warnings from Wall Street that ongoing tariff disputes could trigger a global recession. Stock Market Sell-Off Monday saw a sharp sell-off in US equities, with the Nasdaq plunging 5% and the S&P 500 falling 4.6%. Morgan Stanley now predicts that the S&P 500 could decline by another 5% in the coming months if Trump continues to intensify his trade war strategies. Economic…

China’s national consumer price index (CPI) declined into negative territory in February for the first time since January last year, dragged down by falling food, tobacco, and alcohol prices. Year-on-Year and Monthly Decline According to data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Sunday, the CPI dropped by 0.7% year-over-year in February, reversing a 0.5% gain seen in January. The reading missed economists’ expectations of a 0.5% annualized contraction, as forecasted in a Reuters poll. On a month-over-month basis, the CPI declined by 0.2%, compared to a 0.7% increase in January. Economic Stimulus and Growth Targets The decline in…

Wall Street saw a turbulent session on Friday as investors digested the latest jobs report and assessed ongoing uncertainty stemming from President Trump’s trade policy. Market Performance The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) recovered earlier losses to hover near the flatline. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.3%, putting the broad-based index on track for its worst week of the year. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) pared earlier losses but still dropped 0.4% after closing in correction territory on Thursday. February Jobs Report The latest US nonfarm payrolls report showed that 151,000 jobs were added last month, slightly below economists’ expectations…