A new POLITICO-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab poll finds that California Democrats would prefer Governor Gavin Newsom over former Vice President Kamala Harris in a 2028 presidential primary. Among registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, Newsom leads Harris 25 percent to 19 percent, highlighting his growing influence within the party and the challenges Harris may face in reconnecting with her base.
Newsom’s Momentum
Newsom’s lead reflects his high-profile role in opposing former President Donald Trump’s policies. From challenging gerrymandering efforts in Texas to resisting federal immigration raids and tariff lawsuits, Newsom has remained a visible figure in national Democratic politics. According to the survey, 75 percent of registered Democrats expressed excitement about his potential candidacy. Pollsters noted that his constant presence in the news likely strengthens perceptions of him as a viable contender.
Harris Faces Declining Support
Harris, once a central figure in Democratic politics, has taken a lower profile since losing the 2024 election to Trump. She recently declined to run for California governor, saying she does not want to return to the political system for now. While 67 percent of Democrats said they would be enthusiastic about her candidacy, analysts suggest there is less confidence in her ability to win. Her lukewarm reception in her home state underscores the uphill battle she may face in rebuilding her national appeal.
Other Potential Contenders
Beyond Newsom and Harris, the poll shows former U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg in third place with 13 percent support, followed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 10 percent. Other Democrats, including Gov. Tim Walz, Sen. Cory Booker, Rep. Ro Khanna, Gov. Josh Shapiro, and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, registered in the single digits. The findings suggest that the early Democratic field remains fragmented, with no single candidate consolidating broad support beyond California’s two leading figures.
Policy Influencer Perspectives
A separate survey of 512 Democratic policy influencers in California offered a different perspective. Among this group, Buttigieg led with 19 percent support, while Newsom attracted 14 percent and Harris just 2 percent. Pollster Jack Citrin noted the divide highlights how insiders may be prioritizing electability against a likely Republican nominee such as Vice President JD Vance. He emphasized that winning the nomination and winning the general election are two distinct challenges.
Conclusion
The poll underscores the shifting dynamics of Democratic politics in California ahead of 2028. Newsom currently holds the advantage over Harris among voters, while policy insiders show more interest in alternatives like Buttigieg. As the Democratic field takes shape, questions remain over who can unite the party and mount the strongest challenge in the general election.
